Security Policy Challenges

Security Policy Challenges IntroductionAs we close the course, we need to assess the major influences on US and international security. Our threats have covered failed states, civil wars, terrorism, transnational organized crime, climate change, cyber threats, and global health. Which will influence policy making in the US in the next five years? Is it one of these or will you promote another option? Future ThreatsAccording to RAND Corporations 2040 Project, artificial intelligence, extreme weather, 3d printing, and the speed of change are among the discontinuities and distractions that we need to recognize. That is, of course, something of an oxymoron. By its definition a discontinuity or a distraction is unknown. We arent aware of a distraction until we start looking for it. Nonetheless, these four named problems are masking the interim changes that will be even more consequential, like a lack of nuclear stability, rising life expectancy, mass migration, displaced labor, and shifts in demography. All of this affects the dominance of the liberal world order which creates obstacles to solutions (Hoehn et al. 2018). According to World Economic Forum, the biggest trends in world threats are all pulling societies apart. They are all going in separate directions. The biggest trends are (in no particular order): income and wealth disparity, changing climate, increasing national sentiment, shifting power, degrading environment, rising urbanization, aging population, rising polarization of societies, growing middle class in emerging economies, rising geographic mobility, rising chronic diseases, changing landscape of international governance, and rising cyber dependency. Are these threats in and of themselves?  No, but they have global consequences that make some threats more potent. They are the force multipliers for threats (World Economic Forum 2018). Political risks are growing too; as states confront one another over other issues, they are less likely to be able to take care of the long term thinking that is necessary to anticipate extreme weather conditions. These kinds of surprises have a bigger impact when there is less and less cooperation, anticipation, and preparation. Why? Everything is connected. We learned from the global economic meltdown of 2008 that seemingly unrelated issues like inequality or carbon output can all be affected by each potential shock to the system level, and the world is not ready for these shocks (World Economic Forum 2018). The 2018 NSS identified weapons of mass destruction, bio-threats, pandemics, porous borders, terrorism, international crime cartels, drug traffickers, cyber crime, unfair foreign trade, foreign corruption, and adversary propaganda and disinformation as threats of the future (Trump 2017). The key focus on political, economic, and military strengths which in the course of supporting these will support the liberal world order internationally.  The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs focuses on the inequality in growth worldwide. They expect a continued three percent growth in the world, but it will not be evenly distributed. Thus, countries are vulnerable to boom and bust cycles. That kind of uncertainty can encourage protectionism which discourages trade and growth. In this environment the trend toward environmental sustainability is slow (United Nations 2017). States are less likely to be able to support environmental goals because they are worried about the future. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) is focused on global trade disputes, and they are the biggest threats to growth in the future. The volatility of global trade threatens developing countries, and EIU sees short periods of steep shocks worldwide. Even more volatility can be traced to the Middle East, according to EIU, and regional security will decrease causing oil prices to surge (EIU 2018). Geopolitics    The Heritage Foundation also sees an increase in global competition between the US and China in all areas (not just economics) along with Iran, ISIS, al Qaeda, and Russia (Carafano 2017). Although the predictions were snarky, they are in line with the other predictions for the future.   According to the 2018 National Security Strategy, the world is going to be more competitive, perhaps even evolving into open conflict. Why? American power will be challenged by China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran in politics, economics, and in military arenas (Trump 2018). The coming centuries will challenge American leadership, international institutions (created by the US and its allies) and the liberal world order. Liberalism is in retreat (Haass 2018).  Jones (Brookings Institution) calls it asymmetric bipolarity. Is the world going to be in balance in the future? Yes and no. The United States and China are the central factor in every other actors calculation, albeit unevenly. Theres still a huge disparity between those two actors of course, but China profits from the shadow of the future and from Americas present dysfunction and decisions and is thus more equal in states long-term calculations (Jones 2017). We have basically adopted the democratic peace theory (democracies are not likely to go to war with each other). Weve basically predicted the end of great power competition for years, but what we thought we would see after the end of the Cold War cooperation among the world powers may not be the future of geopolitics. The United States, in particular, is acting schizophrenic about the future, but the future is probably great power politics (Steil 2018). This is even reflected in the National Security Strategy, where we can see not an ideological battle but an economic battle that is becoming political and even military (Hallinan 2018). Great power competitors from Russia and China will challenge our dominance in international institutions. Human Security, Terrorism, Crime, and Cyber SecurityHuman development is about freedom from want and fear. It is based in well-being and dignity, but it starts with security. We cant develop a state without peace and survival. So, human security threats start with natural disasters, biological disasters, war, and homelessness (Tanaka 2015). These threats tend to be mutually reinforcing. When climate change makes states more vulnerable to natural disasters, it makes water harder to find. And, when war makes homelessness, food security is more impactful.   The United Nations Human Development Report lists lingering deprivations and inequalities, unplanned urbanization, aging populations, globalization, refugees (due to war, disasters, or lack of opportunities), violent extremism, worldwide shocks (like pandemics, climate change, and crises), and land degradation as threats of the future (United Nations 2016). The future can be hopeful, however, because we can solve these problems and anticipate these challenges.   Terrorist threats are moving toward lone wolves who attack soft targets and away from hierarchical, highly expensive terror groups. The self-motivated, small scale attacks are the future (Sales 2017). These self-directed terrorists lack resources, but they are harder to find and surveil. The only answer is to anticipate their line of attack, especially if the global landscape looks less like American power and less like the past. As terrorists and criminals evolve, so we will evolve. They will adjust to the post-American post-liberal world order, and so will we. Crime is moving toward a state-less future as cyberspace becomes host to the worlds greatest vulnerabilities. It is cheap to operate in cyberspace, and it has high potential for huge disruptions (Kausch 2017). The criminal networks can exploit this space and so can states.Use both your case study and the assigned readings to write an essay about the major influences on US national security. What will influence foreign policy decision making in the US in the next five years?Discussion Questions: Use both your case study and the assigned readings to write an essay about the major influences on US national security. What will influence foreign policy decision making in the US in the next five years? Free features N Outline $5 FREE N Revisions $30 FREE N Title Page $5 FREE N Bibliography $15 FREE N Formatting $10 FREE PLACE AN ORDER NOW Why Choose Us? 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